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Grupo Curso Exocad Online

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Artemy Drozdov
Artemy Drozdov

We’re Not Convinced By The Convergence Hype €? O2 CEO

Understood as one of neoliberalism rather than simply globalization, the current era seems less the result of uncontrollable natural forces and more as the newest stage of class struggle under capitalism. The anti-democratic implications, rather than being swept under the rug as they are in conventional parlance, move to the front and center. Here, I should like to sketch out the main developments and contours of the emerging global media system and their political-economic implications. I believe that when one takes a close look at the political economy of the contemporary global media and communication industries, we can cut through much of the mythology and hype surrounding our era, and have the basis for a much more accurate understanding of what is taking place, and what socialists must do to organize effectively for social justice and democratic values.

We’re not convinced by the convergence hype – O2 CEO

Second, convergence and consolidation are the order of the day. Specific media industries are becoming more and more concentrated, and the dominant players in each media industry increasingly are subsidiaries of huge global media conglomerates. For one small example, the U.S. market for educational publishing is now controlled by four firms, whereas it had two dozen viable players as recently as 1980. The level of mergers and acquisitions is breathtaking. In the first half of 2000, the volume of merger deals in global media, Internet, and telecommunications totaled $300 billion, triple the figure for the first six months of 1999, and exponentially higher than the figure from ten years earlier. The logic guiding media firms in all of this is clear: get very big very quickly, or get swallowed up by someone else. This is similar to trends taking place in many other industries. “There will be less than a handful of end-game winners,” the CEO of Chase Manhattan announced in September 2000. “We want to be an end-game winner.”

Finally, a word should be said about the Internet, the two-ton gorilla of global media and communication. The Internet is increasingly becoming a part of our media and telecommunication systems, and a genuine technological convergence is taking place. Accordingly, there has been a wave of mergers between traditional media and telecom firms, and by each of these with Internet and computer firms. Already companies like Microsoft, AOL, AT&T and Telefonica have become media players in their own right. It is possible that the global media system is in the process of converging with the telecommunications and computer industries to form an integrated global communication system, where anywhere from six to a dozen supercompanies will rule the roost. The notion that the Internet would “set us free,” and permit anyone to communicate effectively, hence undermining the monopoly power of the corporate media giants, has not transpired. Although the Internet offers extraordinary promise in many regards, it alone cannot slay the power of the media giants. Indeed, no commercially viable media content site has been launched on the Internet, and it would be difficult to find an investor willing to bankroll any additional attempts. To the extent the Internet becomes part of the commercially viable media system, it looks to be under the thumb of the usual corporate suspects.

JAMES RISEN: And then I started taking notes, and they tried to stop me from taking notes. It was a very contentious meeting that only convinced me further that the story was right and that they were trying to stop it.

STEWART BAKER, NSA General Counsel, 1992-94: Obviously, the National Security Agency did not design its programs on the assumption that they would be exposed. Much of this damage is down to Snowden, who is quite deliberately causing as much harm to U.S. companies and the U.S. national interests as he possibly can, leaking these stories in media that are most likely to hype them in ways that will be damaging to the United States.

This despite the fact that there are no virtual reality products with a mass market yet, and there won't even be an attempt at a major launch until next year. Counting all the existing VR developers and people who own a developer kit and products like Samsung's VR headset, we're talking a few million at most (and probably much less). And it only makes sense to suggest VR is out of the Trough of Disillusionment if we count VR's hype wave from... 1992. But much of the current market, including Palmer Luckey himself, who was born that year, were too young or too non-existent to even have an opinion about the technology.

Digital Business (Stage 5): Digital business is the first post-nexus stage on the roadmap and focuses on the convergence of people, business and things. The IoT and the concept of blurring the physical and virtual worlds are strong concepts in this stage. Physical assets become digitalized and become equal actors in the business value chain alongside already-digital entities, such as systems and apps.

5 - Content creation. It is hysterical that Sansar will require pro modeling tools like Maya to create content. You want Zero adoption? Yet again the hype cycle fails to account for major business levers. No pro creator is going to use SL to show off their content and few amateurs have the time or training it takes to use Maya out of the box. In other news, now we have FB subsidizing VR experiences. Content creation is *the* #1 ROI problem with 3D graphics - and creating higher fidelity viewing tools is just going to make it more expensive.

6 - I think people covering the latest hype cycle should make an effort to disambiguate VR (photos/cameras) with VR (3D graphics and modeling). 7 - Content wins. Experiences are king. Community rules. Fidelity does not.

This is my comment as a former Gartner Research Director - with a different real life name of course. Something is missing from the chart. It should say "Hype Cycle" on top. This is a chart of a classic Gartner Hype Cycle, not actual technology deployment. Gartner believes that technologies become overhyped prematurely, and reach the first point of the curve- The Peak of Inflated Expectations and become overhyped. This is exactly what happened to Second Life and other virtual worlds in 2006 - 2007 when Business Week with its cover story, other media sources, and Gartner itself (which should have known better) bought the Kool-aid about virtual worlds and issued incredible projections. The Gartner Hype Cycle then continues to predict that technologies fail to deliver on initial promise and then fall rapidly into their nadir -- the low point on the trough of disillusionment and are given up as essentially dead or way too premature. Technologies, even when given up as dead, can continue to enter a plateau of productivity when they, slowly at times, begin to reach potential-- frequently being renamed and repositioned in the process. Once can argue that Virtual Reality Consumer Applications, of which Virtual Worlds are a subset are starting to see this happen right now -- with the Facebook acquisition of Oculus Rift serving as a trigger. All this Hype Cycle is saying visa vi Virtual Reality (which really needs to be tightened as a term -- VR is not monolithic) is that Virtual REality consumer applications were prematurely written off, and will start to slowly see some read adoption over time, even if their initial "hype" is not realized.

Thank you Eddie for the breath of fresh air. I was seriously thinking of replying myself. As one who is continually warning our customers to be cautious of the latest media hyperventilation about this or that new technology, I find the Gartner reporting invaluable. What I find increasingly disappointing is the declining level of discourse in this blog among the usual repliers. I don't think hamlet had the main proposition for this article quite right but the replies quickly deteriorated to dark comments, conspiracies, snark, truthies from a self-identified american anti-american and more. Another NWN article featured a pissing contest between two of the better known and important supporters of SL. I can't help think that it marked a new low - but perhaps its just a symptom of the final act - the one where the revolutionaries turning on each other.

Conspiracies, snark and "pissing contest" are not all that new to SL or NWN. If anything it's subdued compared to early SL both before and after the 2007 hype wave. The biggest comment wars on NWN now are for non-SL specific issues such as GamerGate.

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